If you read my last post, I mentioned agricultural adaptation measures included by Parties' INDCs under the Paris Agreement. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at Nigeria, which doesn't appear to have mentioned any adaptation measures (according to the map by the CGIAR). In its INDCs submission report, however, agriculture (with 40% share of GDP) is highlighted as one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate change, with climate-smart agriculture and reforestation as key measures of adaptation and mitigation (shifting from the ''business-as-usual'' model).
The report estimates that under a business-as-usual scenario, Northern regions could experience declines in yield (under rain-fed agriculture) of as much as 50%. With increased variability in rainfall patterns, the country would be exposed to flooding in many regions, particularly the humid areas to the South at substantial costs; ''the total value of destroyed physical and durable assets caused by the 2012 floods has been estimated to be N1.48 trillion (US$9.5 billion)'' (INDCs submission, p.5) (check out +Bailey Vickers blog post 'Economic Impacts of Climate Change'!). The North, by contrast, is vulnerable to drought events (particularly the northeast) with an expected decrease in precipitation under increased temperatures. It is estimated that the decrease in surface water resources would increase dependence on underground resources with changes in flows in shallow aquifers. The map illustrates these climatic contrasts:
 |
| Map of Nigeria's agricultural belts by Mike Shand/International Crisis Group, 2017 |
Conflict over resources
According to the INDCs submission report, less than 40% of the population has direct access to potable water, with an important portion being at risk of water stress. The spatial variations in climate, rainfall and resources creates spatial vulnerabilities in terms of climate change. This leads to natural resource conflicts, which, in turn, further undermine sustainable growth.
''Herders against Farmers: Nigeria's expanding deadly conflict'', an article published this month by the International Crisis Group, an independent organization, examines the rising (violent) tensions over resources between the herders and farmers, who historically kept harmonious relations. The National Fadama Development Projects is an initiative funded by the World Bank, initiated in 1933 to boost agricultural productivity and the economy. The projects assisted farmers with irrigation through wetland exploitation (floodplains important for dry season farming - fadama means irrigable land). This has boosted farmers' welfares, guaranteeing dry-season employment; however, this has also resulted in the loss of ''grass-abundant wetlands'', which cattle herders relied on while migrating South during the dry season. High-value crops, which farmers started prioritizing (promoted within the Fadamas) also diminished available livestock feed (grazing grounds) (International Crisis Group, 2017).
Livestock is an important economic sub-sector of agriculture, which accounts for 20-30% of total agricultural production, contributing to 6-8% of GDP (Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, 2016). Grains and livestock have traditionally been handled by pastoralists in the northern regions, while central and southern regions (sub-humid and humid zones) produce most of the country's tuber and vegetable crops. According to Nigeria's National Meteorological Agency, over the past 30 years, the length of the rainy season decreased from 150 to 120 days in northern Nigeria. Furthermore, 350,000 km2 (about the size of Germany) have reportedly been lost to desertification. Deforestation of drylands, expansion of agricultural land, overgrazing and over-cultivation, waterlogging and salinization as a result of poor irrigation practices are amongst the major reasons (Olagunju, 2015).
Rural insecurity, more recently aggravated by the Boko Haram insurgency, has pushed pastoralists farther South. As available pastures shrink in the North, herders have tended to stay longer in the central zones, which triggers disputes over land and water (International Crisis Group, 2017).
Agricultural adaptation and mitigation measures included in Nigeria's Nationally Determined Contributions are not amongst the most effective in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, compared to energy efficiency and gas flaring reduction. However, they align with the ambition of reducing some of the conflicts highlighted in this post, by focusing on regions in the North; ''areas that are most affected by the impacts of climate change''. Click here to find the measures included in the National Adaptation Strategy and Plan of Action for Climate Change Nigeria (NASPA-CCN), in regards to agriculture and water resources.
Given the importance of agriculture to sustain livelihoods, it is crucial to invest in stabilizing conflicts to build farmers' resilience.
No comments:
Post a Comment