Hello! Today I'd like to talk more about agricultural productivity and the so called ''Yield Gap''. Sub-Saharan Africa has more than enough land, water, resources and manpower, but it is the poorest region in the world. 34 out of 49 countries are considered least developed (refer to my last post for a map).
Several studies are consecrated to understanding Africa's food-trade deficit, its increasing reliance on food imports, and underlying poverty conditions that cripple agricultural productivity. According to the African Development Bank (ADB), food imports amounted to US$35 billion in 2016, and if trends persist, could rise to US$110 billion by 2025. Considering that 65% of the world's arable uncultivated land is located in Africa and that agriculture employs more than 60% of the active population, this is a real paradox, to paraphrase Dr. Adesina, president of ADB.
Given the imperative of tackling the restraints of low-productivity and to allow for economic development, it is essential to 'close the gap' between actual and potential agricultural yields. However, according to the FAO's Financial resource flows to agriculture report (2011) ''trends in government spending for countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are discouraging''.
It has become widely recognized that enhancing the productivity of Africa's agriculture sector, which is predominantly composed of small-holder farmers, is essential to achieve inclusive growth, which the ADB defines as ''economic growth that results in a wider access to sustainable socioeconomic opportunities for the majority [...] transforming smallholder farmers into market-oriented value chains that provide goods and services to local, regional and global markets''. Thus, smallholder farmers are key components of the sector and potential drivers of poverty reduction; the Bank sees the importance of investing in environmentally sound and socially inclusive projects for sustainable development through the ''greening of agriculture''.
According to Lipton's urban bias theory (1977), the unfair distribution of national resources to cities in detriment of rural areas is not only unfair but inefficient and that ''growing farm productivity has almost invariably been a pre-condition of successful development in other sectors''. Olivier De Schutter in Agroecology: a tool for the realization of the Right to food (2012) stresses that growth in agriculture will benefit other sectors if it is ''broad-based, increasing the incomes of a larger number of farming households, rather than if it leads to a further concentration of incomes in the hands of relatively large landowners relying on large-scale, heavily mechanized plantations''.
There seems to be two main (sometimes opposing) arguments for the agricultural transformation of African countries in the literature: one founded on agro-ecology which defends food sovereignty and smallholder's self-sufficiency; the other, founded on macroeconomic reforms interested in turning Africa into the next breadbasket of the world, associated with dependency on chemical inputs and hybrids/GMOs.
Fertilizer use in wealthy nations produce excess foods (including livestock feed) and allows for comparative advantage in global markets, whereas in less developed nations ''the use of N fertilizers makes the difference between malnutrition and adequate diet'' (V. Smil, 2002). Fertilizers, GMOs/hybrids, together with irrigation, and investments in R&D have allowed countries like Brazil become one of the largest producers and exporters of commodities. Meanwhile, in Africa ''80 percent of production gains since 1980 have come from the expansion of cropped areas rather than from greater productivity of areas already cultivated'' (Rakotoarisoa et al., 2012). According to the president of the International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD), the uncultivated arable lands are ''Africa's strategic reserve [...] we have to increase productivity of existing farming systems''. The graph below compares yields in 2014 compared to potential yields.
Several studies are consecrated to understanding Africa's food-trade deficit, its increasing reliance on food imports, and underlying poverty conditions that cripple agricultural productivity. According to the African Development Bank (ADB), food imports amounted to US$35 billion in 2016, and if trends persist, could rise to US$110 billion by 2025. Considering that 65% of the world's arable uncultivated land is located in Africa and that agriculture employs more than 60% of the active population, this is a real paradox, to paraphrase Dr. Adesina, president of ADB.
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| African imports and exports of agricultural products Source: FAOSTAT, 2011 |
It has become widely recognized that enhancing the productivity of Africa's agriculture sector, which is predominantly composed of small-holder farmers, is essential to achieve inclusive growth, which the ADB defines as ''economic growth that results in a wider access to sustainable socioeconomic opportunities for the majority [...] transforming smallholder farmers into market-oriented value chains that provide goods and services to local, regional and global markets''. Thus, smallholder farmers are key components of the sector and potential drivers of poverty reduction; the Bank sees the importance of investing in environmentally sound and socially inclusive projects for sustainable development through the ''greening of agriculture''.
According to Lipton's urban bias theory (1977), the unfair distribution of national resources to cities in detriment of rural areas is not only unfair but inefficient and that ''growing farm productivity has almost invariably been a pre-condition of successful development in other sectors''. Olivier De Schutter in Agroecology: a tool for the realization of the Right to food (2012) stresses that growth in agriculture will benefit other sectors if it is ''broad-based, increasing the incomes of a larger number of farming households, rather than if it leads to a further concentration of incomes in the hands of relatively large landowners relying on large-scale, heavily mechanized plantations''.
There seems to be two main (sometimes opposing) arguments for the agricultural transformation of African countries in the literature: one founded on agro-ecology which defends food sovereignty and smallholder's self-sufficiency; the other, founded on macroeconomic reforms interested in turning Africa into the next breadbasket of the world, associated with dependency on chemical inputs and hybrids/GMOs.
The Gap
Like you may know, the Haber-Bosch process industrialized agriculture by providing the essential reactive nitrogen (Nr) to crops (SE Bauer, 2016), and is considered as the ''detonator of the population explosion'' (Vaclav, Mill 1999). However, the current application rate of fertilizers in SSA is still around 10 kg/hectare, compared to over 100 kg globally. The map below highlights the contrasts in N fertilizer consumption worldwide: |
| Map showing global nitrogen fertilizer consumption in 2014/ Source: UN Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) |
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| Where could yields improve? Source: National Geographic |
Maize (corn) is a staple food crop in many regions of SSA but agronomic factors leading to low yields include lack of adoption of hybrids, soil constraints, weeds, and droughts. Small-holder farmers in Southern Africa are mostly maize-based and subject to erratic climatic conditions. Climate change challenges current practices and calls for innovative, efficient use of resources, especially water. If arid and semi-arid regions are naturally prone to high temperatures, low rainfall and dry seasons, they are projected to expand by 60 million to 90 million hectares (IPCC 2007, Chapter 9). This would translate, according to the IPCC, to rain-fed agriculture yield losses of up to 50% between 2000 and 2020 in Southern Africa.
In the face of climate change, I would like to further explore different approaches to agriculture which would ensure water-use efficiency and that promote long-term sustainability.
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